UIS Poll: Rauner and Quinn in dead heat among likely voters; Rauner leads among enthusiastic voters

An online survey conducted by the University of Illinois Springfield Center for State Policy and Leadership’s Survey Research Office shows that Gov. Pat Quinn and challenger Bruce Rauner are in a virtual tie less than a month before election day.

The online panel participants were recruited by Qualtrics and include 723 likely Illinois voters. Challenger Bruce Rauner leads slightly 43.1% to 41.3% with 14.0% still reporting that they are undecided. These results are within the margin of error and indicate that there is no clear favorite in the gubernatorial race. In the other statewide race, Senator Dick Durbin leads challenger Jim Oberweis 50.4% to 34.9% (14.1% undecided). Generally, Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates in the U.S. House of Representative races, 43.1% to 32.4% (24.5% undecided).

Likely voters were also asked about their level of enthusiasm and whether they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in the upcoming elections or less enthusiastic than usual. Of those who reported that they are more enthusiastic, Bruce Rauner has a nine percentage point lead (49.2% to 40.3%, 10% undecided).

“This poll has results very similar to telephone polls released in the past several weeks, indicating that the gubernatorial election is still too close to call,” said Ashley Kirzinger, director of the UIS Survey Research Office. “Using this technology allows us to be in the field at a time when traditional survey methods are expensive, and Illinois residents are experiencing telephone polling fatigue.”

This is the first time the UIS Survey Research Office has conducted an online panel and is part of their ongoing effort to test innovative survey methods.

The survey results were weighted using 2010 exit poll data and included two quotas (age and region of the state). The overall margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Complete question wording and methodology is available at www.uis.edu/SurveyResearchOffice/.

For more information on the survey, contact Ashley Kirzinger, director of the UIS Survey Research Office, at 217/206-7956 or akirz2@uis.edu.