UIS and the Illinois Municipal League partner to publish the Illinois Municipal Policy Journal

The Illinois Municipal League (IML) announced a partnership with the University of Illinois Springfield (UIS) to publish the Illinois Municipal Policy Journal.

Since 2016, IML has published the Journal as an educational tool that provides elected officials with academic research on the issues facing Illinois and its 1,298 cities, villages and towns. Additionally, it provides an arena for academics to publish their scholarly work on important topics, like public pensions, tax increment financing and other local government issues.

“This new partnership allows IML to continue expanding its benefits to our members by addressing some of the greatest challenges facing our state and providing solutions, which are needed now more than ever before as communities face decreased revenues that fund crucial programs,” said Brad Cole, IML executive director. “We are happy to join with the University of Illinois Springfield and look forward to the continued success of the Illinois Municipal Policy Journal.”

“A hallmark of this partnership is the blending of theory and practice made possible by balancing the talents and experiences of public officials delivering frontline municipal services with the input and observations of scholars who study and observe the role of municipal government in the state,” said Robert W. Smith, dean of the UIS College of Public Affairs and Administration. “This is something needed today more than ever to solve problems and improve municipal government and systems for all citizens in the State of Illinois.”

UIS’s College of Public Affairs and Administration will spearhead the development of content for the Journal. IML will publish and distribute the Journal widely to local and state elected officials, as well as academic and professional organizations around the country.

Three principal UIS faculty members will be involved in editing the Journal. Kenneth Kriz, UIS Distinguished Professor of Public Administration and Director of the Institute for Illinois Public Finance; Beverly Bunch, UIS Professor of Public Administration; and Arwi Kriz, a visiting Research Fellow in the UIS Center for State Policy and Leadership.

“We are very excited about providing government officials throughout the state with the most current research on issues that affect the state and its local governments. When challenges to governance are more severe then they have ever been, the state university system is befitting to shed light on best practices in governance, forces that affect governments and choices that governments face,” said Kenneth Kriz.

“We will be working with scholars across the state to synthesize and share research on various economic, financial, social, legal and environmental issues. We will address topics such as the potential impacts of different alternatives, the types of factors that are important to consider, and what has worked, or not worked, in other governments. We are pleased to be collaborating with IML on this project,” said Bunch.

The fifth volume of the Illinois Municipal Policy Journal is scheduled to be available in December 2020.

UIS report finds state and local public safety pension systems underfunded due to contribution method

A new report from the University of Illinois Springfield’s Institute for Illinois Public Finance finds that the state’s public employee pension systems and downstate police and fire pension systems are not contributing enough to fund their liabilities, due in part, to the method used to determine how much money is put into plans each year.

The paper, “Are Illinois State and Local Governments Contributing Enough to Their Pension Plans to Pay Down Their Debt?,” takes a look at some of the assumptions used to determine contributions and how they are affecting the funding levels of pensions in Illinois.

Kenneth Kriz, UIS distinguished professor of public administration and director of the Institute for Illinois Public Finance, said contribution levels are crucial because there are only three levers policymakers can use to try to address pension funding shortfalls: increasing investment returns, decreasing benefit costs and increasing the contributions governments make to the plans.

However, options are limited, at least in the short term, for reducing the cost of benefits or increasing investment returns, said Kriz, who authored the report.

“The third lever, and the one that they can really control a lot, is the contributions they need. So, setting appropriate contribution rates is extremely important,” he said.

Indeed, the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (COGFA) recently cited insufficient contributions and lower-than-expected investment returns, as prime drivers of an unexpected spike in the state’s unfunded pension liabilities last fiscal year. COGFA pegged that liability at $137.3 billion as of June 30, after Illinois’ unfunded pension liability grew by a half-billion dollars more than initially projected.

Illinois state pension plans and downstate police and fire plans use what is known as the level percentage of payroll assumption for calculating plan costs. Under this assumption, unfunded liabilities are amortized so that the plans expect to pay the same percentage of payroll each year into their pension systems. This is the method most states use, and it assumes that the amount being paid will increase as time goes on and payrolls grow.

Kriz said this method is similar to taking out a balloon-payment loan to buy a house. Under such a loan, payment amounts spike dramatically near the end, when the borrower is paying off the bulk of the principal.

“It may look like governments are contributing enough into their pension plans, if you make a huge number of assumptions,” he said. “However, if you use more realistic assumptions, they’re not anywhere close to contributing enough. That means that the payments are going to have to rise dramatically in the future.”

Another method for determining contributions, known as the level dollar assumption, is similar to taking out a traditional mortgage, where each debt payment is roughly the same amount. Using a level dollar assumption would stop governments from pushing most costs off to the future by requiring larger contributions now. That could leave state and local governments with less revenue to spend on other priorities in the short term, but it would also mean that policymakers in the future will likely not be scrambling to make impossibly high contributions.

Kriz compared the problem to trying to run from Springfield to Chicago. “If you run about 10 miles a day, you will be in Chicago in about 20 years. At the current rate, they’re not only not running that 10 miles, they’re headed in the wrong direction,” Kriz said. “It’s like the goal is Chicago, but they’re headed toward St. Louis instead and hoping to make it all up in the last few years.”

Kriz said that increasing contributions now instead of delaying that fiscal pain would be a challenge, and bad budget years would make it even harder. “Obviously, there will be times that running 10 miles a day is going to be difficult. But if you keep skipping out or going the wrong way, you’re never going to be able to run fast enough to cover all that lost ground. We want to be headed toward Chicago at whatever pace is possible, but it’s got to be realistic”

Kriz said there is a potential upside, too. If governments were to opt for a policy that more resembles a level dollar assumption, the cost of payments would be fairly predictable and easier to plan for in the future. If payrolls continue to grow over the years, the contribution would also become a smaller percentage of payroll over time.

Moves to try to improve efficiency and increase returns on investment, like recently-passed legislation to consolidate suburban and downstate public safety pension funds, could help, Kriz said. “It’s a good first step, but it’s not going to get you all the way. Having better investment returns will help plans become better funded, but it’s not a panacea,” he said.

Kriz said consolidations could open up smaller local governments to more volatility as the consolidated fund takes on riskier investments than they have been able to pursue on their own. “If we have a meltdown in the market next year, God forbid, contributions are going to have to rise,” he said. “And so the question comes back to, are governments going to be willing to and able to make increased payments?”

The full report is available in a white paper format on the UIS Institute for Illinois Public Finance’s website.

Note: This article was produced by the Institute of Government and Public Affairs as part of IGPA’s efforts to connect relevant, nonpartisan research and expertise from the University of Illinois System to the public policy discussion in Illinois.

UIS/NPR Illinois survey explores voter opinion on health issues, immigration, climate change, income inequality and trust

The 2019 Illinois Issues Survey conducted by the University of Illinois Springfield Survey Research Office and NPR Illinois surveyed Illinois voters on several important topics that are currently making headlines, including health issues, immigration, climate change, income inequality and trust.

Of the health issues presented, a lack of access to mental health services (55%) is the most common community health issue to be reported as “very serious” by respondents in the 2019 Illinois Issues Survey. Additionally, 50% of respondents cite prescription pill abuse as a “very serious” issue. For Cook County, the two topics with the highest levels of respondents are a lack of access to mental health services (59%) and a lack of access to healthcare (57%). Respondents in the collar counties are more like to cite prescription pill abuse (50%) and a lack of access to mental health services (48%) as very serious issues. Downstate voters are more likely to cite a lack of access to mental health services (57%) and heroin abuse (52%) as very serious issues.

A majority of 2019 respondents (59%) report that immigrants help Illinois rather than hurt it. This result is similar to responses in 2018 (63%). On the issue of “DREAMers,” the vast majority of Illinois voters (73%) support the right for undocumented immigrants who were brought to the United States as children to stay.

The survey also asked about the level of priority policymakers should give to global climate change, where a plurality responded that politicians should give it the top priority (44%). Democrats/Democrat-leaning voters (57%) are at odds with Republicans/Republican-leaning voters (22%) on whether global climate change should be a top priority for policymakers.

Income inequality is widely regarded as a problem by the vast majority of respondents (82%). There is a variance when accounting for partisanship. Democrats/Democrat-leaning voters (94%) almost unanimously agree that income inequality is a problem, compared to Republican/Republican-leaning voters (63%).

On the issue of trust, less than half of Illinois voters are likely to say most people can be trusted (39%). Republican/Republican-leaning voters (45%) are more likely to say they can trust most people than their Democrat/Democrat-leaning counterparts (39%). While trust in most people is generally low, trust in the Illinois media is much more favorable (59%). Democrat/Democrat-leaning voters (73%) showed a much higher level of trust in the Illinois news media’s accuracy and fairness than Republican/Republican-leaning voters (42%). While 59% of voters report trusting the Illinois media, a larger amount reports the local news media is important (83%).

The 2019 Illinois Issues Survey was designed and analyzed by the staff of the Center for State Policy and Leadership, the Institute for Legal, Legislative, and Policy Studies and the Survey Research Office at the University of Illinois Springfield. The survey was fielded from Sept. 13-23, 2019 among a sample of 1,012 registered voters as part of an online panel provided by Qualtrics. For all respondents the credibility interval is plus or minus 3.5. While a margin of error is often used to express uncertainty in polling, for online surveys credibility intervals are used to measure the accuracy, or uncertainty, of the survey.

A full summary of this portion of the 2019 Illinois Issues Survey can be found on the UIS Survey Research Office website. For survey analysis and questions, contact A.J. Simmons, Ph.D., director of the UIS Survey Research Office, at 217-206-8109 or asimm2@uis.edu.

UIS/NPR Illinois survey finds support for mental health background checks and banning assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition

The 2019 Illinois Issues Survey conducted by the University of Illinois Springfield Survey Research Office and NPR Illinois finds a majority of Illinois voters support mental health background checks on all firearm purchases. The survey also found voter support for banning assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition sales in Illinois.

Consistent with the 2018 survey, approximately nine in ten respondents (92%) support mental health background checks on all firearm purchases. When looking at key subgroups in the state, support remains consistently high. The survey found 94% of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents support mental health background checks, compared to 91% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Non-leaning independents responded with 90% in support of such a policy.

A six-percentage point difference separates downstate residents (88%) from Cook County (94%) residents, and a seven-percentage point difference separates downstate residents from collar county residents (95%). Notably, 92% of voters living in a household with firearms support mental health background checks, slightly less than voters in households without firearms (94%).

In a substantial increase from last year, the 2019 survey found 72% of Illinois voters support an assault weapons ban, compared to 58% in 2018. National polls, including an August 2019 Fox News Poll, have also shown growing support for an assault weapons ban nationwide over the past year.

“There is notable partisan variation in support for this policy,” said A.J. Simmons, Ph.D., director of the UIS Survey Research Office. “While 83% of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents support this policy, a small majority (56%) of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents do. Non-leaning independents are in the middle of the two partisan groups at 64%.”

The survey also found a notable variation across the regions of the state. While 79% of Cook County voters support an assault weapons ban, 73% of collar county voters and 63% percent of downstate voters do. Further, while slightly over three-quarters (77%) of voters living in non-firearm owning households support this policy, 59% of voters living in firearm owning homes do.

A new question in the 2019 survey asked respondents about their attitudes towards banning ammunition magazines with a capacity of more than ten rounds, commonly referred to as high-capacity magazines. The survey found 74% of Illinois voters support banning high-capacity magazines. While 83% of Democrats and Democrat-leaning Illinois voters support such a policy, 62% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters do. Two-thirds (67%) of non-leaning independents support a ban on high-capacity magazines. Further, while over three-fourths (78%) of Cook County voters support such a ban, less than two-thirds (65%) of downstate voters do.

The 2019 Illinois Issues Survey was designed and analyzed by the staff of the Center for State Policy and Leadership, the Institute for Legal, Legislative, and Policy Studies and the Survey Research Office at the University of Illinois Springfield. The survey was fielded from Sept. 13-23, 2019 among a sample of 1,012 registered voters as part of an online panel provided by Qualtrics. For all respondents the credibility interval is plus or minus 3.5. While a margin of error is often used to express uncertainty in polling, for online surveys credibility intervals are used to measure the accuracy, or uncertainty, of the survey.

A full summary of this portion of the 2019 Illinois Issues Survey can be found on the UIS Survey Research Office website. For survey analysis and questions, contact A.J. Simmons, Ph.D., director of the UIS Survey Research Office, at 217-206-8109 or asimm2@uis.edu.

UIS/NPR Illinois survey finds a majority of Illinois voters support a graduated income tax

The 2019 Illinois Issues Survey conducted by the University of Illinois Springfield Survey Research Office and NPR Illinois finds a majority of Illinois voters support the proposed graduated income tax constitutional amendment that will appear on the November 2020 ballot.

The proposal would amend the Illinois Constitution and replace the current flat tax with a graduated income tax. According to an Illinois Senate joint resolution, the new system would provide a “fair tax system” where lower income tax rates would apply to lower income levels and higher rates would apply to higher income levels.

Support for the graduated income tax grew from 57% in 2018 to 67% in 2019, according to the Illinois Issues Survey. However, there is a vast difference in partisan support for the proposal. Democrats/Democratic-leaning voters (79%) are much more likely to support the graduated state income tax than Republican/Republican-leaning voters (49%) and non-leaning independents (59%).

“We are more than a year out from the November 2020 vote,” said A.J. Simmons, Ph.D., director of the UIS Survey Research Office. “Between now and then, those in favor and opposed to the amendment will be sharpening their arguments and increasing ads aimed at swaying voter opinion. It will be interesting to see how public opinion reacts to those efforts.”

The age group most likely to support the proposed graduated income tax constitutional amendment is respondents ages 18 to 34 (71%), a slight contrast with the lowest supporting age group, those ages 45 to 59 (64%). Across regional lines, results are quite similar among Cook County (69%), the collar counties (63%), and downstate counties (67%).

There are differences in support among race groups, with blacks (79%) favoring the tax more than any other group, while whites (63%) and Hispanics (67%) responded more similarly.

In regards to income, support for the tax is at 70% for those with incomes under $45,000 and drops to 65% for household incomes between $45,000 and $100,000. Support drops further to 62% for individuals reporting a household income over $100,000.

“Slightly less than a third (29%) of respondents believed they would pay more with the proposed tax, with a plurality (46%) thinking they would pay about the same,” said Simmons.

The Illinois Issues Survey found 57% of Illinois voters are closely following news surrounding the proposed graduated state income tax constitutional amendment. There is also some optimism surrounding the impact the graduated income tax could have on the state. Two-thirds (66%) of respondents believe it will have a positive effect on the financial health of the Illinois government.

The 2019 Illinois Issues Survey was designed and analyzed by the staff of the Center for State Policy and Leadership, the Institute for Legal, Legislative, and Policy Studies and the Survey Research Office at the University of Illinois Springfield. The survey was fielded from Sept. 13-23, 2019 among a sample of 1,012 registered voters as part of an online panel provided by Qualtrics. For all respondents the credibility interval is plus or minus 3.5. While a margin of error is often used to express uncertainty in polling, for online surveys credibility intervals are used to measure the accuracy, or uncertainty, of the survey.

A full summary of this portion of the 2019 Illinois Issues Survey can be found on the UIS Survey Research Office website. For survey analysis and questions, contact A.J. Simmons, Ph.D., director of the UIS Survey Research Office, at 217-206-8109 or asimm2@uis.edu.

UIS/NPR Illinois survey finds more voters feel the state is headed in the right direction overall

The 2019 Illinois Issues Survey conducted by the University of Illinois Springfield Survey Research Office and NPR Illinois finds more Illinois voters feel the state is headed in the right direction and that the economy is improving. Voters also rate Gov. JB Pritzker’s overall job performance at 59%.

The survey found that twice as many respondents (28%) say Illinois is heading in the right direction, compared to only 14% in 2018. Nearly three in ten Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (29%) and Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents (31%) say the state is heading in the right direction compared to less than one-fifth (17%) of non-leaning independents.

“Perhaps surprisingly, there little variation across the different regions of the state,” said A.J. Simmons, Ph.D., director of the UIS Survey Research Office. “While nearly three in ten respondents living in Cook County (29%) and downstate (29%) say Illinois is on the right track compared to slightly under a quarter (24%) of voters in the collar counties.”

In 2018, 15% of respondents described the economy of Illinois as “excellent” or “good.” In 2019, the survey finds that number has risen to 23%. While nearly a quarter of voters in Cook County (24%) and the collar counties (24%) rate the economy “excellent” or “good,” slightly less (21%) of downstate voters do.

However, the survey finds the number of respondents who have considering moving out of the state in the previous 12 months has risen to slightly more than six in ten (61%) compared to 53% or respondents a year ago. Respondents ages 18 to 34 (69%) were the most common age group to say they’ve considered moving out of Illinois in the past year. The three most common reasons cited for moving by voters who have considered leaving the state are lower state taxes (27%), state government policies (17%) and better weather (15%).

“While a majority of voters say they have considered moving out of Illinois, far fewer report having taken steps to do so,” said Simmons. “Over a quarter of respondents who have considered moving out of Illinois say they’ve looked up the cost of living in another state (28%) and looked at housing in a new state (26%). However, only 2% have submitted paperwork to rent or buy housing in a new state and only 5% of these folks have applied for jobs out of state.”

Finally, the survey found 59% of voters approve of the way Gov. Pritzker is handling his job. While 79% of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents approve of the job Governor Pritzker is doing, only 32% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents do. Non-leaning independents give Pritzker a 49% approval rating. When looking across the regions of Illinois, 69% of Cook County voters, 56% of collar county voters and 51% of downstate voters approve of Gov. Pritzker.

The 2019 Illinois Issues Survey was designed and analyzed by the staff of the Center for State Policy and Leadership, the Institute for Legal, Legislative, and Policy Studies and the Survey Research Office at the University of Illinois Springfield. The survey was fielded from Sept. 13-23, 2019 among a sample of 1,012 registered voters as part of an online panel provided by Qualtrics. For all respondents the credibility interval is plus or minus 3.5. While a margin of error is often used to express uncertainty in polling, for online surveys credibility intervals are used to measure the accuracy, or uncertainty, of the survey.

A full summary of this portion of the 2019 Illinois Issues Survey can be found on the UIS Survey Research Office website. For survey analysis and questions, contact A.J. Simmons, Ph.D., director of the UIS Survey Research Office, at 217-206-8109 or asimm2@uis.edu.

First students to graduate from UIS’ new public policy bachelor’s degree program

A group of four students will make up the first graduating class of the University of Illinois Springfield’s new public policy bachelor’s degree program. Students first started to enroll in the program in Fall Semester 2016.

The degree is designed to give students comprehensive training in the field of public policy, including applied policy implementation and program evaluation. The degree prepares students for careers as lawmakers, policy analysts, legislative aides, community activists, lobbyists and attorneys.

“This program was started as a way to provide students who are interested in government and politics with a more applied curriculum and to utilize our location in the state capital to allow students, who already are interested in government, a chance to start interning and working in the field,” said Magic Wade, UIS assistant professor of political science.

In addition to what students learn in the classroom, they are also required to complete a six credit-hour internship with a state, local government or policymaking agency as part of the public policy bachelor’s degree curriculum. The internships are designed to introduce students to various post-graduate professional options.

The four students expected to graduate Saturday, May 11, 2019, with their bachelor’s degrees in public policy include Tristan Akers of Cambridge, Jason Edwards of Springfield, Andrew Jarmer of Springfield and James Wheeler of Rochester.

Jarmer says he decided to major in public policy because it is a hands-on program “based on real-life problems and solutions,” which makes it different from a traditional degree in political science.

“In contrast to political science, which is more based in theories and abstract concepts, public policy is essentially a study of how we, as a society, choose our priorities and act upon them. You can learn quite a bit about a society/government/group of people by examining their agenda and policy decisions,” he said.

Following graduation from UIS, Jarmer, who is also earning a bachelor’s degree in political science, plans to continue to work as a campaign/office staffer for the Democratic Party of Illinois before starting law school.

Wheeler, who is also active in politics as a political staffer for the Illinois Democratic County Chairs’ Association transferred to UIS from Lincoln Land Community College (LLCC) to earn his bachelor’s degree in public policy.

“It is wonderful,” he said. “I was very lucky to seamlessly glide from graduating at LLCC to studying at UIS in this new program, and am thankful that it was implemented at the time that it was.”

Following graduation, he plans to apply for state jobs and earn his master’s degree in political science, with a focus on public law, at UIS.

Edwards also transferred to UIS from LLCC and currently works at the Illinois State Capitol as a senate page. He also plans to earn his master’s degree in political science at UIS following the completion of his bachelor’s degree.

“When I started this degree, I really didn’t know what to expect or how it would go, but I have to say it has arguably been the best decision I have made here at UIS,” said Edwards. “I learned such a great amount of information about past, current, and future topics and subject matters that affect all of us citizens here in our own state and our country.”

Akers, who is a dual public policy and political science major, currently interns for the Illinois Senate Republican’s District Planning and Member Services staff. He will be attending law school following graduation from UIS. He says he chose the public policy degree because it was unique.

“I figured it would give me a step up,” he said. “It feels good knowing that many others will follow in our footsteps.”

The UIS public policy bachelor’s degree curriculum addresses questions surrounding the ethics of policy-making, the conditions in which policies are made, how programs should be implemented, and whether they are effective. Courses provide in-depth consideration of health, education, labor law, social welfare, environmental, or agricultural policy while equipping students with the tools to participate in the advocacy, drafting, and analysis of public policy.

For more information on the UIS bachelor’s degree in public policy, contact Magic Wade at 217/206-6523 or mwade7@uis.edu. Students may apply online at www.uis.edu/admissions/applytoday/.

Innocent man represented by UIS Illinois Innocence Project receives executive clemency 23 years after his death in prison

The Illinois Innocence Project at the University of Illinois Springfield is pleased to announce that Grover Thompson, who was wrongfully convicted in 1981 and died in prison in 1996, has received executive clemency based on actual innocence by former Gov. Bruce Rauner. This is the first posthumous exoneration to occur in Illinois and only the 21st such exoneration nationwide, as documented by the National Registry of Exonerations.

“We applaud Gov. Rauner for bringing justice to an innocent man who had no chance to fight for himself,” said John Hanlon, executive director of the Illinois Innocence Project. “We also applaud members of Illinois law enforcement who recognized Grover’s innocence years ago and, with incredible involvement and devotion, fought with us to clear Grover’s name 23 years after his death.”

Lt. Paul Echols (retired), of the Carbondale, Illinois Police Department, was instrumental in uncovering Thompson’s innocence. While investigating several cold case murders in Carbondale, Lt. Echols along with Detective Jimmy Smith, of Cape Girardeau, Missouri, obtained a confession from serial rapist and murderer Tim Krajcir for the crime Thompson was wrongfully convicted of committing.

The case caught the attention of two Southern Illinois University (SIU) School of Law students working for the Illinois Innocence Project. In 2011, Thompson’s nephew, S.T. Jamison, and the Illinois Innocence Project filed an Executive Clemency Petition with the Illinois Prisoner Review Board asking for Thompson’s posthumous exoneration. No one opposed the petition. In December 2015, Gov. Rauner denied Thompson’s exoneration without explanation.

“Grover’s case is the poster child of injustice,” said Lt. Echols. “In my 28 years as a police officer and 10 years as a criminal justice professor, this was the most disturbing case of injustice I have ever seen. I’m proud to have been part of the team that finally found justice for Grover.”

In 1981, 46-year-old Thompson, a black man, was traveling by bus to visit family in Mississippi and stopped to rest in a Mount Vernon, Illinois, post office lobby. At the same time, Krajcir, a white man sometimes mistaken for a dark-complexioned man, broke into 72-year-old Ida White’s home and stabbed her repeatedly while she resisted his attempts to rape her.  

The police quickly set their sights on Thompson after a neighbor reported a black man fleeing the scene. Despite that, Thompson, who was found sleeping in the post office across the street, could not have committed the crime due to a disability and was not wearing clothing that fit the description of the attacker. He was arrested, convicted and sentenced to 40 years in prison.

“Uncle Grover suffered a tragedy that never should have happened,” said S.T. Jamison, Grover’s nephew, from his home in Minnesota. “He was an innocent black man just trying to get home to his family and he never came home.”

“I am thrilled beyond words that his innocence has finally been acknowledged,” he said. “I thank the good people of the Illinois Innocence Project and God for justice for my dear Uncle Grover. I also am grateful to Gov. Rauner. I and my family members are unspeakably elated!”

Posthumous exonerations are extremely rare. Of the 2,363 exonerations documented since 1989 by the National Registry of Exonerations, only 20 are posthumous. Ten of those posthumous exonerations are of individuals, like Thompson, who died in prison.

“We’ve learned about the many reasons wrongful convictions happen, including tunnel vision and witness misidentification,” said Brandon Klages, a UIS senior and student worker at the Illinois Innocence Project. “Grover’s case is an example of how police can build a case around an innocent person because of their race and class, instead of allowing the evidence to lead the way.”

Lt. Echols details Thompson’s story in chapter 21 (titled “Another Victim”) of his book “In Cold Pursuit: My Hunt for Timothy Krajcir – The Notorious Serial Killer.” All proceeds from the book support the Nine Angels Memorial Scholarship at Southern Illinois University, named for the victims of Krajcir.

“I am very pleased Grover’s family finally has closure, confirming what they knew so many years ago, that Grover did not commit this crime,” said Lt. Echols, who received the Illinois Innocence Project’s “Defender of the Innocent” award in 2018 for his commitment to bringing justice to Thompson. “This closes another chapter in the sad stories caused by Krajcir. May Grover now rest in peace.”

UIS/NPR Illinois survey shows J.B. Pritzker leads Governor Bruce Rauner by 12 percentage points in November election

A new statewide survey conducted by the University of Illinois Springfield’s Center for State Policy and Leadership and NPR Illinois shows Democrat J.B. Pritzker leads Republican Governor Bruce Rauner in the race for Illinois Governor by 12 percentage points ahead of the November 6, 2018 general election.

The July-August telephone survey (cell phone and landline) received responses from a representative sample of 717 registered voters, with a ± 3.66% margin of error.

Thirty-five percent of those who answered the Illinois Issues Survey said they would vote for Pritzker compared to 23 percent for Rauner. However, another 15 percent indicated they would vote for someone else, and 27 percent said they were still undecided at the time the poll was taken, a number which will shrink as the election nears in November.

The survey found that 35 percent of respondents identify as Democrats and 23 percent as Republicans. Downstate, Republicans (31 percent) outnumber Democrats (24 percent) while in Chicagoland, Democrats (40 percent) are much more numerous than Republicans (18 percent). Republicans are more likely to identify as conservative (63 percent) than Democrats are as to identify as liberal (53 percent).

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the large majority of respondents (75 percent), regardless of party or ideology, think Illinois is on the wrong track. When asked if they have considered leaving the state in the past year, 53 percent of all respondents said yes. Voters under 35 years of age were more likely (67 percent) to say this than those 35 and older (51 percent).

One of the hot issues in the current gubernatorial election is whether to move from the current flat income tax, where everyone pays the same rate, to a graduated income tax, where those with more income pay a higher rate. The survey found that 57 percent of respondents favor a graduated income tax, with support strongest among Democrats at 69 percent and somewhat less among Independents at 56 percent. However, even a substantial minority of Republicans (41 percent) indicated a preference for a graduated tax compared to the current flat rate.

Over three times as many respondents said they believe immigrants help (63 percent) rather than hurt (20 percent) Illinois. But, opinion was sharply divided on this question by partisan affiliation. Whereas 83 percent of Democrats and 62 percent of Independents see immigration as a help, only 36 percent of Republicans share this view.

Respondents gave strong support to increasing state funding for public higher education in order to hold down the costs of tuition. Three-fourths said this should be a high priority for the state. Regarding the tendency of high school graduates to attend college outside the state, 40 percent of respondents said individuals go elsewhere because Illinois is too expensive and 37 percent point to uncertain state funding as the cause.

Other policy topics covered by the survey include term limits, undocumented immigrant children, school vouchers, gun rights, healthcare access, drug abuse, social trust and trust in the media, and today’s political and racial divisions.

The 2018 Illinois Issues Survey is the first in a planned long-term project which examines the policy preferences of Illinoisans. The study examines policy issues relevant both at the state and national levels across a wide variety of areas.

Read the full report on the NPR Illinois website. Questions about the report may be directed to Matthew Case, visiting research manager, at 217/206-6293 or mwcase2@uis.edu.

UIS Illinois Innocence Project client walks free after 22 years of wrongful imprisonment

Last week, William (Bill) Amor, a client of the Illinois Innocence Project (IIP) at the University of Illinois Springfield, walked free from the DuPage County Jail after 22 years of incarceration. His release came two months after a DuPage County judge overturned Amor’s 1997 arson murder conviction, finding that new arson-related scientific evidence was new evidence of actual innocence.

“It is undisputed by the experts in this case that fire science has evolved, and it has changed to such an extent that the original findings in this case are unreliable,” said Lauren Kaeseberg, legal director of the Illinois Innocence Project Chicago office, who represents Bill Amor. “In fact, the evidence points to an accidental fire – which is what we believe occurred here. Bill Amor did not murder anyone and the science finally supports that which he has claimed for 22 years – he is innocent.

“We are so happy that Bill is free,” said Kaeseberg. “He’s ready to move on with his life and hopefully soon he can close this chapter of injustice.”

Amor’s case is particularly important because it is believed to be the first of its kind in the state of Illinois in which a court has found that advancements in fire science constitute newly discovered evidence of actual innocence. In Judge Liam Brennan’s ruling vacating Amor’s conviction in April, he concluded:

“…there can be no question that the lynchpin of the State’s case at trial was the defendant’s confession, which the State and Defense experts today agree is scientifically impossible. Whatever the reasons for the Defendant’s scientifically impossible confession, the new evidence places the evidence presented at trial in a different light and undercuts this Court’s confidence in the factual correctness of the guilty verdict.”

Prosecutors have indicated they plan to retry the case and a September trial date has been set.

“Bill has already served almost his entire sentence and we remain hopeful that prosecutors will decide that it is the legal, ethical and financial interests of the State not to retry this case,” said Kaeseberg.

Bill Amor is represented by four attorneys: Lauren Kaeseberg, Illinois Innocence Project legal director, Chicago office; Erica Nichols Cook, formerly of the Illinois Innocence Project, now pro bono counsel for Amor and currently Director of the Wrongful Conviction Division for the Iowa State Public Defender; Tara Thompson, staff attorney, the Exoneration Project; and Kevin Caraher, of the law firm Cozen O’Connor and pro bono attorney for Amor.

On the evening of September 10, 1995, Amor and his wife left their Naperville apartment (which they shared with Bill’s mother-in-law, Marianne Miceli) to go to a drive-in movie. They were gone for several hours and when they returned, they found that a fire had broken out at the apartment and Miceli had died from smoke inhalation.

Amor would be convicted two years later, on September 17, 1997, of murder and aggravated arson for setting the fire that caused Miceli’s death. Amor was convicted based upon a “confession” (which has been proven false) and arson findings that are no longer scientifically reliable. What stands out in this case is that Amor’s “confession” was the basis for the fire investigators in 1995 to change their initial finding of an “undetermined” cause of fire to an arson. With the exception of giving a false confession in this case, Amor has maintained his innocence from day one. He was ultimately sentenced to 45 years in prison.

The statement attributed to Amor was given to police after he had been in jail two weeks, after 15 hours of questioning and immediately following Amor being served divorce papers at the station. The “confession” included details as to how Amor purportedly started the fire with vodka and a lit cigarette – which, at a December 2016 hearing, all experts, including the State’s own witness, testified is not possible.

“False confessions and faulty forensic science are two of the leading causes of wrongful convictions in this country,” said Tara Thompson, one of Amor’s attorneys. “We hope that the Amor case can set a new standard in this state for how old, unreliable evidence is to be viewed in light of modern advancements. We know of too many other innocent people in this state and around the country who are suffering from wrongful arson convictions.”

At the December hearing on Amor’s case, attorneys presented evidence that showed the original arson findings are no longer reliable when analyzed under modern fire science techniques. Nationally recognized arson experts testified about the new science that undercuts the conviction in this case, including: Doug Carpenter of Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc. in Columbia, Maryland, and John DeHaan of Fire-Ex Forensics in Vallejo, California. Further, ATF Senior Special Agent John Golder, called by the State at the hearing, conceded that the manner in which Amor’s confession claims the fire started is impossible and that Amor was not in the apartment when the fire started.

IIP’s work on Amor’s case was made possible by a federal grant to the University of Illinois Springfield for use by the Illinois Innocence Project.

UIS Economic Outlook Survey finds Sangamon County organizations concerned about state finances, less optimistic on health care

The Spring 2017 Sangamon County Economic Outlook Survey, conducted by the University of Illinois Springfield Survey Research Office and The Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce, finds that local organizations continue to worry about state government finances.

The study examined the economic perceptions, expectations and evaluations of Sangamon County businesses as well as public and non-profit organizations.

Sixty-one percent of respondents, the highest percentage ever, cite state government finances as one of the top three concerns facing their organizations over the next twelve months. This figure is higher than the 56 percent of fall 2016 survey respondents who listed state government finances as one of the three biggest challenges facing their organization.

The survey also finds that respondents are less optimistic about health care now than they have been in the past. While the fall 2016 survey found that more than two-thirds of respondents (68%) expected to see an increase in the healthcare sector, this figure has dropped to slightly over half of respondents (55%) in the spring 2017 survey. This decline coincides with uncertainty in Washington over the future of health care.

In terms of the Sangamon County economy overall, the survey finds respondents more optimistic in terms of capital investment now than the fall 2016 survey (34% compared to 25% expect to see an increase). The survey also finds that strong majorities expect to see increases in interest rates (83%) and inflation (76%) over the next twelve months.

While most organizations report that their organizations recruit from outside the local area (61%) than exclusively locally (34%), those who do recruit from outside of central Illinois report challenges in recruiting and retaining those candidates. Nearly nine in ten (89%) that recruit from outside the local area say that attracting candidates from outside of central Illinois is either somewhat or very difficult and nearly as many (84%) say that retaining the candidates they do hire from outside of central Illinois is either somewhat or very difficult.

The Sangamon County Economic Outlook Survey has been conducted biannually (March/April and September) since 2008. The full report contains results for questions asked since 2008. In addition, the spring 2017 report contains a topical section with questions pertaining to work readiness and job training. The results for the spring 2017 survey are from 282 local organizations that were contacted in March via email invitations using Qualtrics Research Suite, a platform for online surveys. The margin of sampling error for the study is +/- 5.6 percent.

The survey is sponsored by the UIS Chancellor’s Office, the UIS Center for State Policy and Leadership, and the Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce. For more information on the methodology and to read the full report, visit the UIS Survey Research Office website.

Questions about the survey may be directed to Matt Case, interim director of the UIS Survey Research Office, at 217/206-6293 or mwcase2@uis.edu.

Illinois Innocence Project at UIS announces Latino Innocence Initiative

The University of Illinois Springfield’s Illinois Innocence Project (IIP) has announced the formation of the Latino Innocence Initiative. The purpose of the Initiative is to address unique vulnerabilities that Latinos face that lead to wrongful conviction of the innocent and difficulties in obtaining exoneration.

Reaching out to assist Latinos as part of its work is an important goal for the UIS innocence project.

"Almost 14% of Illinois inmates are Latinos who are often wrongfully convicted due to unique barriers involving language, citizenship, and status” said John Hanlon, executive director of the Illinois Innocence Project. “We hope to address these disparities which often lead to improper convictions and create difficulties for Latino inmates through working on their cases, encouraging understanding of the reasons for their treatment, and developing a reform agenda to minimize such wrongful convictions.”

This will be an ambitious undertaking that will need generous support from the community. Last week, Senator Richard Durbin announced a federal grant award for IIP to focus on those cases involving the wrongful conviction of a Latino where DNA might result in an exoneration. As part of that award, IIP will be hiring a bi-lingual attorney in the Chicago area to work on those cases.

IIP’s latest exoneree, Angel Gonzalez, encouraged the formation of this Initiative. Gonzalez, himself, was wrongfully convicted over 20 years ago due to a confession and identification that occurred as a result of his Latino heritage. “This is an important step in helping those Latinos who were convicted but are innocent,” Gonzalez said.

For more information, visit the Illinois Innocence Project website at www.uis.edu/illinoisinnocenceproject/.

UIS Economic Outlook Survey finds state budget impasse tops concerns of Sangamon County employers

The Fall 2015 Economic Outlook Survey, conducted by the University of Illinois Springfield and the Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce, finds that a majority of local employers think that the state budget impasse is one of the biggest challenges facing them over the next twelve months.

The challenge is dampening expectations with employers reporting positive expectations for their business and sector, but not for the overall Sangamon County economy. In fact, the decrease in positive expectations (-22 points) of the overall Sangamon County economy is the largest decrease since fall 2012.

“It is clear that local employers are concerned about the state budget impasse,” said Ashley Kirzinger, director of the UIS Survey Research Office. “While local businesses are still reporting positive expectations for the next year, these expectations are clearly moderated by what is happening in the capitol building.”

When asked specifically about the role of the state budget impasse on their business, 54 percent of local employers report that the state budget impasse is having a negative effect on their gross revenue and sales, 51 percent report that it is having a negative impact on their profitability and 46.1 percent report it is having a negative effect on the overall status of their business.

“While the results are disappointing, we’re not surprised given the lack of a budget deal at the State Capitol, said Chris Hembrough, president and CEO of the Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce. “Our spring survey revealed our best results in eight years. However, after nearly five months with no state budget, it’s understandable that while the majority of employers are still optimistic about the future, they’ve scaled back their expectations, at least until a budget deal has been completed.”

The fall survey results are from 263 local organizations who were contacted between September 28 and October 15, 2015 by interviewers at the UIS Survey Research Office. The margin of error for this project is plus or minus 5.4 percentage points. For more information on the methodology and the full report, please visit the UIS Survey Research Office website at www.uis.edu/surveyresearchoffice.

Questions regarding the survey may be directed to Ashley Kirzinger, director of the UIS Survey Research Office, at 217/206-7956 or akirz2@uis.edu.

Illinois Innocence Project at UIS receives federal DNA testing grant

U.S. Senator Richard Durbin is pleased to announce that the University of Illinois Springfield’s Illinois Innocence Project, with the support of the UIS Center for State Policy and Leadership, has been awarded a $753,958 federal grant to clear Illinois innocence cases where DNA testing might decide the outcome of individuals who plead guilty and Latinos who might be innocent.

The award is for a United States Department of Justice Bloodsworth Grant, named in honor of Kirk Bloodsworth, the first DNA death penalty exoneration case in the U.S. in 1993.

“In Illinois, we’ve seen firsthand how innocent people can get their lives back by taking advantage of post-conviction DNA testing to solve old cases and exonerate the wrongly convicted,” said Durbin. “The Illinois Innocence Project has worked to ensure fairness and accuracy in the justice system, including directly participating in two 2015 exonerations. I particularly applaud the Project for reaching out to Latinos wrongly in prison who often, because of their minority status, find themselves without help to remedy their convictions.”

Last year, the Illinois Innocence Project assisted in the passage of a law, which for the first time in Illinois allows those convicted by a guilty plea to go to court to get evidence tested that might exonerate them because they are innocent. Senator Durbin indicated that “providing assistance in cases where someone might have pled guilty but who might be innocent points to a potentially serious flaw in our criminal justice system. It is my hope that this grant will allow the Project to bring justice to those who believed it would be better to plead guilty than to struggle to prove their innocence.”

Reaching out to assist Latinos is an important goal for the UIS innocence project.

"Almost 14% of Illinois inmates are Latino who are often wrongfully convicted due to unique barriers involving language, citizenship, and status” said John Hanlon, executive director of the Illinois Innocence Project. “We hope to address these disparities which often lead to improper convictions and create difficulties for Latino inmates by working on cases where the individual can be proved innocent through the use of DNA testing.”

The project will initially focus on numerous cases it has already screened in both areas in anticipation of receipt of this grant. The cases will be further reviewed to determine if the evidence can be tested or retested for DNA and if the likelihood is that the individual is actually innocent of the crime for which they were convicted.

“We know that DNA is the most important forensic tool to identify or exclude a perpetrator of a crime,” said Hanlon. “This grant will give the project the resources to follow up with investigation and DNA testing of the many requests we have from people who may actually be innocent."

As part of the grant, the Illinois Innocence Project will hire several UIS undergraduate students to assist in the screening, review, and evaluation of the cases.

“This new federal grant not only meets a critical need in the state of Illinois, but provides important opportunities for our students,” said UIS Chancellor Susan J. Koch. “Present and future students will continue to have opportunities to learn about injustices in the criminal justice system through education and practice in ways that other universities cannot provide. The Latino focus also reinforces our campus’ emphasis on diversity in its work, its staff, and its students.”

More information about the Illinois Innocence Project can be found on their website at www.uis.edu/illinoisinnocenceproject/.

UIS researchers examine attitudes towards transgender rights in national survey

Researchers at the University of Illinois Springfield are releasing results of a national survey exploring attitudes towards transgender rights and supportive policies.

The survey of 774 respondents finds 81 percent of U.S. adults believe that transgender persons deserve the same rights and protections as other Americans. Yet, support for specific policies varies by demographics. For example, 41 percent support using public funds to cover gender dysphoria treatment for transgender persons, but support is significantly higher among females (48%) compared to males (33%).

The survey was conducted by Ashley Kirzinger, director of the UIS Survey Research Office, and Jason Pierceson, UIS associate professor of political science.

The survey project, “Examining Attitudes Toward the “T” in LGBT,” asks individuals about several key policy areas including healthcare, prisons, military service, and K-12 education.

“While there is broad support for equal treatment under the law for transgender individuals, the public is currently less supportive of discrete policy proposals crucial to the support and protection of the transgender community,” said Pierceson. “This demonstrates that activists and policymakers still have much work to do to educate the public about the policy needs of the transgender community.”

Participants were recruited using Qualtrics, an online survey firm, and the survey’s questionnaire and methodology was overseen by Kirzinger.

“Developing a questionnaire that allowed individuals to voice their opinions without forcing them into answers on issues on which they might not know enough was extremely difficult,” said Kirzinger. “Yet, this survey is an important in-depth examination of public attitudes towards transgender supportive policies.”

The survey is representative of the national adult population and also includes a sub-sample of individuals who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender.

For the complete survey report, visit www.uis.edu/surveyresearchoffice. The survey results will be presented by Pierceson and Kirzinger on August 29, 2015 at the Springfield LGBT Equality Institute. For more information on the Institute, visit www.equalityillinois.us/springfield-institute-2015/.

Questions about the survey may be directed to Kirzinger at 217/206-7956 or akirz2@uis.edu. Pierceson may be reached at 217/206-7842 or jpier2@uis.edu.

UIS Survey: Sangamon County citizens report better health than two years ago

The 2015 Sangamon County Citizen Survey, a collaborative project between the University of Illinois Springfield’s Center for State Policy and Leadership, the United Way of Central Illinois, and the Community Foundation for the Land of Lincoln, shows ninety-six percent of respondents report having health insurance. That is an increase of almost seven percentage points from the 2013 survey.

The telephone survey of landline and cell phone numbers is conducted every two years in order to assess the quality of life in Sangamon County. The survey included several questions examining the health of residents. On all health measures, the respondents report better health outcomes than they did two years.

In addition to a higher percentage of residents reporting being covered by some form of health insurance, the percent of individuals who report having poor physical or mental health has also decreased.

“The 2015 survey also found an increase in the number of residents who report having a primary care provider. Having access to health insurance and primary care could easily translate into a decrease in the number of poor health days, as demonstrated in the survey results,” said Ashley Kirzinger, director of the UIS Survey Research Office.

The survey is representative of Sangamon County, Illinois and the data was weighted for probability sampling and to match the most recent population estimates as provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. The results are based on 576 completed interviews with 68% of the interviews completed on cell phones. The overall response rate for the survey is 13.2%, the cooperation rate is 23.2%, and the margin of error is +/- 4.08 percentage points.

The survey covers nine topical areas including education, economy, culture and recreation, public safety, social well-being, government and civic participation, health, infrastructure, and the environment.

For more information on the survey, contact Ashley Kirzinger, director of the UIS Survey Research Office, at 217/206-7956 or akirz2@uis.edu.

The full survey is available at http://go.uis.edu/citizen. 

Biannual UIS survey shows support for downtown Springfield growth

The 2015 Sangamon County Citizen Survey, a collaborative project between the University of Illinois Springfield’s Center for State Policy and Leadership, the United Way of Central Illinois, and the Community Foundation for the Land of Lincoln, shows strong support for growing downtown Springfield among Sangamon County residents.

The phone survey, which is conducted every two years in order to assess quality of life in Sangamon County, asked residents “How important, if at all, do you thinking growing downtown Springfield is to Sangamon County?” Nearly half of respondents report that it is “very important,” (47%), with an additional 39% reporting that it is “somewhat important.” In addition, African-American residents are slightly more favorable in their responses with 68% reporting that growing downtown Springfield is “very important.”

“What is especially interesting is that this year’s survey indicates more support for growing downtown Springfield among Sangamon County residents than the survey did in 2013,” said Ashley Kirzinger, director of the UIS Survey Research Office. “Both surveys found a majority of residents think growing downtown Springfield is important to Sangamon County, but the 2015 survey has a five percentage point increase from 81% to 86% of residents reporting this.”

The 2015 Sangamon County Citizen Survey is a telephone survey of landline and cell phone numbers in Sangamon County. The survey is representative of Sangamon County, Illinois and the data was weighted for probability sampling and to match the most recent population estimates as provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. The results are based on 576 completed interviews with 68% of the interviews completed on cell phones. The overall response rate for the survey is 13.2%, the cooperation rate is 23.2%, and the margin of error is +/- 4.08 percentage points.

The survey covers nine topical areas including education, economy, culture and recreation, public safety, social well-being, government and civic participation, health, infrastructure, and the environment.

For more information on the survey, contact Ashley Kirzinger, director of the UIS Survey Research Office, at 217/206-7956 or akirz2@uis.edu.

The full survey is available at http://go.uis.edu/citizen.  

UIS Economic Outlook Survey finds Sangamon County businesses are very optimistic about the future

The Spring 2015 Economic Outlook Survey, conducted by the University of Illinois Springfield and The Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce, finds local businesses and non-profit organizations are very optimistic about doing business in Sangamon County over the next 12 months.

In the past two and a half years, local business expectations have increased 30 points, expectations for their sector have increased 23 points, and expectations for the overall Sangamon County economy have increased 36 points. All three measures indicate strong positive expectations for the economy over the next 12 months.

“The Economic Outlook Survey is a crucial piece to getting a true indicator of how our local employers view the current state of the economy,” said Chris Hembrough, president and CEO of The Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce. “The overall survey numbers are the best since 2008. The responses we received this spring not only demonstrate a healthy economy, but our employers are feeling better about doing business in Sangamon County than they have in many years.”

Three-fourths of survey respondents report that they expect an increase in their own gross revenue/sales over the next 12 months and 63.9 percent report that they expect an increase in the overall gross revenue/sales in Sangamon County. In addition to positive expectations about their own business and the overall county, local employers also report optimistic projections for almost every industrial sector with the medical/health care sector receiving the most positive expectations.

However, local employers are not without concerns. Four in ten respondents (39.3 percent) report that government regulations and taxes are one of the biggest challenges facing their organization. Other challenges were competition from other businesses, availability of skilled workers, state government finances and employee compensation and benefits.

According to UIS Survey Research Office Director Ashley Kirzinger, local employers have reserved optimism about the local economy.

“While respondents still report that there are significant challenges for local businesses and continue to identify liabilities for doing business in Sangamon County, they are optimistic about the future,” she reports.

The telephone survey of local employers was conducted between March 5, 2015 and March 26, 2015 and includes 249 respondents from the private, public, and non-profit sectors. For more information on the methodology, please visit the UIS Survey Research Office website for the full report.

If you have any questions regarding the survey, please contact Ashley Kirzinger at 217/206-7956 or akirz2@uis.edu.

UIS survey finds high level of support for "millionaire’s tax" among likely Illinois voters

A survey by the University of Illinois Springfield Survey Research Office, part of the Center for State Policy & Leadership, finds almost two-thirds of Illinois voters plan to vote in favor of an advisory referendum on the November ballot, which asks if they support increasing taxes on individual income of more than $1 million.

The online survey asked participants about their level of support on a variety of different tax issues and found that 63.1% of Illinois likely voters report that they will support this referendum, commonly referred to as the “millionaire’s tax.”

The highest level of support is among female voters, younger voters, and voters identifying as Democrats. For example, 71.4% of voters age 18-24 report that they support this referendum compared to only 57.6% of voters 65 and older. More than three-fourths of Democratic voters support the referendum compared to less than half of Republican voters. Interestingly, there are not significant differences among income groups. While individuals earning more than $120,000 annually report the lowest amount of support, all other income groups support the measure at relatively equal levels.

The online panel participants were recruited by Qualtrics and include 723 likely Illinois voters. The survey results were weighted using 2010 exit poll data and included two quotas (age and region of the state). The overall margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Complete question wording and methodology is available at www.uis.edu/SurveyResearchOffice/.

For more information on the survey, contact Ashley Kirzinger, director of the UIS Survey Research Office, at 217/206-7956 or akirz2@uis.edu.

UIS Poll: Rauner and Quinn in dead heat among likely voters; Rauner leads among enthusiastic voters

An online survey conducted by the University of Illinois Springfield Center for State Policy and Leadership’s Survey Research Office shows that Gov. Pat Quinn and challenger Bruce Rauner are in a virtual tie less than a month before election day.

The online panel participants were recruited by Qualtrics and include 723 likely Illinois voters. Challenger Bruce Rauner leads slightly 43.1% to 41.3% with 14.0% still reporting that they are undecided. These results are within the margin of error and indicate that there is no clear favorite in the gubernatorial race. In the other statewide race, Senator Dick Durbin leads challenger Jim Oberweis 50.4% to 34.9% (14.1% undecided). Generally, Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates in the U.S. House of Representative races, 43.1% to 32.4% (24.5% undecided).

Likely voters were also asked about their level of enthusiasm and whether they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in the upcoming elections or less enthusiastic than usual. Of those who reported that they are more enthusiastic, Bruce Rauner has a nine percentage point lead (49.2% to 40.3%, 10% undecided).

“This poll has results very similar to telephone polls released in the past several weeks, indicating that the gubernatorial election is still too close to call,” said Ashley Kirzinger, director of the UIS Survey Research Office. “Using this technology allows us to be in the field at a time when traditional survey methods are expensive, and Illinois residents are experiencing telephone polling fatigue.”

This is the first time the UIS Survey Research Office has conducted an online panel and is part of their ongoing effort to test innovative survey methods.

The survey results were weighted using 2010 exit poll data and included two quotas (age and region of the state). The overall margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Complete question wording and methodology is available at www.uis.edu/SurveyResearchOffice/.

For more information on the survey, contact Ashley Kirzinger, director of the UIS Survey Research Office, at 217/206-7956 or akirz2@uis.edu.